Annibyniaeth

Ok, so here's the skinny on Welsh Independence.

We had an interesting debate on recently @ our El Grupo Libros meet, about Welsh independence. Both Rob & David had anecdotal evidence of where the Welsh government had, in their opinion/experience let down the people of Wales by performing worse than the decisions made in Westminster for the rest of the UK. 

I had to admit to being at a loss to be able to back up my assertion that Wales would manage at least as well as an independent nation, as under the shackles of Westminster. I stated that Denmark, Iceland & Ireland manage quite well. So, I guess I'd better back up my gut feeling with evidence, or at least some views founded on proper research. Here goes:- 

From Google AI ( not the most academically rigorous source I admit, but an an overview) :-

Yes, Welsh independence is a viable possibility, but not a certainty. Some experts say an independent Wales is feasible, though it would face short-term economic challenges. Plaid Cymru actively advocates for independence, while other parties hold varying views on the matter. Support for independence is growing, but it remains a minority view in Wales. 

Arguments for Welsh Independence:

Viability:

Recent reports suggest Wales could sustain itself as an independent nation, with a fiscal deficit comparable to European norms. 

Control:

Independence would allow Wales to make its own decisions on key issues, such as the economy, environment, and culture. 

Growing Support:

Public support for independence has increased in recent years, with pro-independence marches and growing "indy-curious" sentiment. 

Economic Opportunities:

Independence could create conditions for green and inclusive economic growth. 

Arguments Against Welsh Independence: 

Economic Challenges:

An independent Wales would face challenges in raising sufficient tax revenue for public services in the short to medium term. 

Economic Underperformance:

Wales' economy has historically underperformed compared to the UK average, making the economic leap to independence potentially more difficult. 

Historical Ties:

Wales has strong historical and cultural ties to the UK, and a significant portion of the population favors remaining in the union.  

In conclusion, 

The question of Welsh independence is a multifaceted issue with strong arguments on both sides. While an independent Wales is a viable option, according to some reports, it would require careful consideration of the potential economic and social implications.

The Independent Constitutional Commission was launched by the Welsh Labour government.[92] Led by Professor Laura McAllister and former Archbishop of Wales, Rowan Williams, it will examine Wales' future relationship with the rest of the UK and will consider Welsh independence as well.

The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales presented its final report to the Welsh Government on 18 January 2024.

Plaid Cymru called the commission the "most wide-ranging national conversation about Wales' future". The interim findings of the commission outlined three viable options for Wales including independence, to be explored in more depth in 2023. The report outlined the option of a Free Trade Association during a transition period to independence where an agreement could be made for e.g England responsibility for matters such as defence. The report also identified a confederation of Britain and Ireland as a potential option and key questions on independence to be addressed in 2023. The report concluded that there are "significant problems" with the way Wales is currently governed within the Union of the United Kingdom and independence is a "viable" option.

The whole report is here. I must admit to not having read it, as I have a life.

Digging down on the issue of financial independence, I found an interesting article by 

https://economicsobservatory.com

some quotes:-

"For example, despite comparable rates of unemployment, gross value added per head– in Wales was 73% of the UK average in 2019. This compared with 92% in Scotland. In West Wales and the Valleys, the figure was as low as 63% of the UK average."

there is also "a big gap between the tax revenues raised in Wales and the level of public spending – at least as far as these can be geographically determined."

"These differences indicate the relative underperformance of the Welsh economy over decades. This has real consequences: for example, Wales has long had a higher incidence of limiting long-term illness than any English region; and the former Welsh coalfields have been the worst performing area in the UK in terms of socio-economic outcomes. Yet the extent to which this is a ‘London and the South East versus the rest’ rather than a Welsh issue is underexplored." 

In summary:-

Interpretation of these numbers is where those in favour of Welsh independence and those against diverge. Proponents of the Union argue that they are evidence that Wales could not ‘survive’ alone, or at least would suffer significant economic and wellbeing losses if it were to become independent. 

In contrast, supporters of Annibyniaeth see Wales’s economic performance as evidence that the nation has been held back in an unequal, England-dominated union. They would argue that given economic and political autonomy, Wales would prosper, as have, for example, the small Baltic republics since the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Another factor to consider is as mentioned previously, Wales will be changing to P.R. I'm glad of that, as I don't believe the 'first past the post' 'two party system' is now fit for use. I for one am tired of the good guys/bad guys dipole, swinging the country from left to right & back again, as the electorate tire of the current government. 

So I guess that's the fairest view. Nobody knows, and won't until it's tested. I feel that as a welshman & observer of the chaos a bad government in Westminster can cause, we should become independent.

Further reading:-

www.iwa.wales/agenda/

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Wikipedia on Welsh independence:-